In 2024, bauxite supply will tighten and price judgments will be strong, which will support alumina costs. At the same time, under the situation of overcapacity of alumina, the price of alumina is under pressure, which provides good cost support for the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Domestic production capacity is approaching the production ceiling red line of 45 million tons, and output is expected to maintain a slight growth in 2024 under high capacity utilization and operation status. Under cost support and supply bottlenecks, profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry will remain high.
On the demand side: The amount of aluminum used in real estate still ranks first. The recovery speed of the real estate industry will directly affect the downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum. Real estate consumption is expected to recover moderately in 2024. The rapid development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries will drive aluminum consumption to become a consumption growth point. In addition, investment in power grids has also maintained a steady growth trend, and overall demand has maintained steady growth.
In terms of inventory: under the condition that supply is limited and consumption maintains a certain growth, the proportion of superimposed aluminum and water is at a high level of more than 70%. It is expected that this ratio will continue to strengthen in 2024, and aluminum ingot inventories will remain low.
In 2024, electrolytic aluminum will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. The increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited, and aluminum prices are rising due to disruptions from production cuts in Yunnan, which may lead to a periodic supply shortage. The demand side focuses on the growth of aluminum consumption brought about by new energy and photovoltaics. Once policies intensify in the face of "dual carbon + dual energy consumption controls" on the supply side, or consumption grows beyond expectations, the contradiction between supply and demand will become the focus, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and strengthen. Give a title
